How probability forecasts are phrased affects how people make predictions Seeing multiple probability forecasts in verbal rather than numerical form—"likely" vs. "55%"—causes people to make more ...

After fitting survival data with a linear regression model, it is important to know how to use the results to make prediction of the t-year survival probability or median failure time for future ...

There's value in recognizing and attending to the problems we struggle with; it provides an opportunity not only to learn but also to become better calibrated in our predictions, says Tania Lombrozo.