Seeking Alpha article used statistical approach to estimate S&P 500 P/E market multiple based on macroeconomic variables. Treasury yield and federal spending to GDP ratio are significant variables ...

Some recent research has suggested that macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation, can improve interest rate forecasts. However, the evidence for this puzzling result is based on ...

History suggests that elevated values of the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio may indicate an overvalued stock market. A valuation model that uses a small set of economic variables can ...

This session aimed to gain insight into the macroeconomic models and inputs used at the decision-making level. In his talk, Robert Arnold, Congressional Budget Office (CBO), echoed Stock by stressing ...

Our eLibrary offers over 25,000 IMF publications in multiple formats. Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we ...

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Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10 macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts with the ...